Tropical Cyclone Discussion
589 WTPZ41 KNHC 160852 TCDEP1 Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 AM CST Fri Oct 16 2026 Trudy has rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane overnight. Its 15-n-mi wide eye, which is evident in proxy-visible and infrared satellite imagery, is surrounded by a solid ring of very deep convection with cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. A prominent outer band wraps around the northwestern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is set at 105 kt for this advisory, trending closer to recent Dvorak estimates in lieu of the objective estimates that appear too low given Trudy's impressive satellite structure. The hurricane unexpectedly moved westward for several hours tonight and now appears to be drifting northward, but using a longer-term estimate yields a slow northwestward motion (325/5 kt). The track guidance is clustered on Trudy moving north-northwestward today before turning back toward the northwest tonight and into the weekend in response to a building ridge over Mexico. This will bring the center of Trudy very near the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico in 48-60 h. The NHC track forecast shifted westward this cycle in response to the westward deviation described above, and most models including the skillful Google DeepMind keep the center of Trudy offshore. However, note that small changes to a track forecast that is parallel to the coast could result in large differences regarding the severity of potential impacts. Users should pay close attention to the watches and warnings in place and continue monitoring forecast updates. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or so while Trudy moves over very warm SSTs in a moist, low shear environment. The near-term NHC intensity forecast lies on the high end of the guidance (near HCCA) given the storm's current structure and these favorable conditions. Southwesterly shear associated with a cutoff low near northern Baja California is forecast to increase later this weekend as Trudy moves northward, which could induce some weakening. Potential land interaction further complicates the forecast, but Trudy is predicted to remain offshore at this time and be a major hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Mexico. Thereafter, more significant weakening is forecast as the system encounters even stronger shear and a drier mid-level environment. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, bringing an increasing risk of storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding rain. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in effect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and warnings will likely be required today. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest coast of Mexico between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain. 3. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 14.2N 102.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 14.8N 102.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 15.9N 103.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.4N 104.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 20.3N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 21.0N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 21.4N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 21.8N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL