Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

539
WTPZ21 KNHC 160848
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212026
0900 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 102.4W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE  60SE  60SW 100NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 102.4W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 102.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 102.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.9N 103.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.4N 104.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.3N 106.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 108.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 21.8N 109.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 102.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 16/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z