Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
354 AXNT20 KNHC 160605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and extends SW to 10N22W where the ITCZ begins and then continues to 08N27W. The ITCZ then resumes west of a low near 04N39W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 09W and 33W. A 1012 mb low is located near 06N36W and is generating scattered moderate to strong convection from 04N to 11N between 34W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level short-wave trough is supporting scattered showers over the NW Gulf while a surface trough off Veracruz support similar convective activity over the western half of the Bay of Campeche. Upper-level diffluence also support scattered showers in the SE Gulf and Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, modest subtropical ridging from high pressure NE of the region is leading to mainly moderate or weaker easterly winds through the basin, with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region into Fri producing a gentle to moderate E to SE flow and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west- central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by late Sat morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Strong high pressure will follow the front promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level diffluence over Yucatan and the NW Caribbean is supporting scattered moderate convection W of 80W. Otherwise, the seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades through the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate, highest in the south-central basin, and rough offshore Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Fri, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough seas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight and Fri. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this convective activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N47W to 25N61W, which is generating scattered showers ahead of it to 44W. A 1012 mb low pressure centered near 23N36W is generating scattered moderate convection from 19N to 26N between 30W and 36W, where fresh E winds and locally rough seas are also present. Elsewhere, a mainly weak pressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters through Fri. A strong cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front with gale conditions possible in the vicinity of 31N70W by Sun night.