Tropical Cyclone Discussion

658
WTPZ41 KNHC 160247
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
900 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026
 
The latest satellite imagery of Trudy continues to show a core of 
deep convection with cloud tops near -80C, particularly on the 
western side of the circulation. During the past few hours, an eye 
feature has become apparent on infrared and proxy-vis imagery. 
Unfortunately, there have not been any recent microwave passes to 
provide a better assessment of the core structure since the Air 
Force Hurricane Hunters departed earlier this afternoon. The latest 
subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB is T5.0/90 
kt, while UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have a fairly large 
spread of 65-81 kt. Given the improved satellite presentation since 
the previous advisory, with an eye-like feature, and the TAFB 
classification, the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt.
 
The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 345/6 kt. Trudy is 
moving generally north-northwestward into a weakness in the 
subtropical ridge caused by an upper-level trough over the Yucatan 
Peninsula. As the trough moves eastward, the ridge is forecast to 
build over central Mexico, steering Trudy northwestward to 
north-northwestward along its western periphery and roughly parallel 
to the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. Most of the 
track guidance keeps the center just offshore, with the exception of 
the GFS, which brings the center inland. After 72 h, a mid-level 
ridge to the north of the system is expected to build, turning Trudy 
more westward. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the 
previous advisory through 60 h, but has been adjusted slightly north 
thereafter, leaning toward the HCCA and GDMI aids.
 
Environmental conditions are favorable for steady to rapid 
intensification during the next day or so. Sea surface temperatures 
are near 29-30C, combined with low vertical wind shear and abundant 
mid-level moisture. The NHC peak intensity forecast still remains at 
125 kt, which is above all the intensity guidance. The SHIPS Rapid 
Intensification (RI) index still shows a 20 to 30 percent chance of 
RI over the next 24 h, and the NHC forecast explicitly reflects RI 
during that time frame. After 36-48 h, increasing southwesterly wind 
shear, potential internal structural changes, such as eyewall 
replacement cycles, and land interaction will begin to disrupt the 
circulation, inducing a weakening trend. Regardless, Trudy is 
forecast to be a powerful major hurricane as it nears west-central 
Mexico. It is worth noting that the intensity forecast is highly 
sensitive to the exact track. A track farther to the left and 
offshore would allow Trudy to remain stronger than currently 
forecast, while a track that brings the center inland would result 
in rapid weakening. Beyond 72 h, strong shear should cause continued 
weakening, even though the system will have less land interaction as 
it moves farther offshore. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the 
upper end of the guidance initially, then trends toward the HCCA 
corrected consensus by the end of the forecast period.
   
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the 
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend, bringing 
an increasing risk of storm surge, damaging winds, and flooding 
rain. Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings are currently in 
effect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and 
warnings will likely be required on Friday.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest 
Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the 
weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, 
Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
3. Large swells will begin to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico Friday and continue through the weekend. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 14.3N 102.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 15.0N 102.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 15.9N 102.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 17.1N 103.7W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 18.4N 104.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  18/1200Z 19.7N 105.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  19/0000Z 20.7N 106.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  20/0000Z 21.0N 107.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  21/0000Z 21.3N 108.8W   50 KT  60 MPH