Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
655 WTPZ31 KNHC 160246 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Trudy Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 900 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 ...TRUDY STRENGTHENS... ...EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 102.1W ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico from Playa Perula northward to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico north of Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo southward to Zihuatanejo A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue monitor the progress of Trudy. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later on Friday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 102.1 West. Trudy is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Trudy is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread into the hurricane watch area on Saturday. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest Mexican coast in Guerrero. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the weekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Trudy, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.