Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

650
WTPZ21 KNHC 160246
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212026
0300 UTC FRI OCT 16 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.1W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  50SE  40SW  80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.1W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 101.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.0N 102.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.9N 102.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.1N 103.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.4N 104.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 19.7N 105.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.7N 106.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 21.0N 107.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 21.3N 108.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 102.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 16/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z