Tropical Cyclone Discussion

381
WTPZ45 KNHC 160240
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Simon Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
800 PM MST Thu Oct 15 2026
 
Simon is gradually weakening. The compact storm is producing a 
limited area of convection that has been losing organization over 
the past several hours. The initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt, 
which is based on a blend of the latest satellite estimates and in 
general agreement with the earlier ASCAT pass. Simon remains tiny, 
with its associated tropical-storm-force winds only extending up to 
40 n mi from the center.
 
The storm continues to meander in weak steering currents. However, 
the models have finally come into fair agreement that a general 
northwestward motion should begin later tonight or tomorrow, and 
continue through the weekend when the system moves in the flow 
between a low-level trough to its west and a ridge to its east. This 
motion should bring the weak and shallow system to the west of the 
Baja California Peninsula over the weekend.
 
Increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and intrusions of dry 
air should cause Simon to continue to weaken over the next few days. 
Based on the model guidance and the hostile environmental 
conditions, Simon is now expected to become a remnant low in about 
36 hours and dissipate in two or three days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0300Z 19.5N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 20.1N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 21.2N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 22.1N 112.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/0000Z 23.2N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED