Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
068 AXNT20 KNHC 152225 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW to 1008 mb low pressure at 06N34W to 03N38W. The ITCZ extends from 03N38W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 14W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean extending through the Yucatan Channel is inducing scattered disorganized convection over much of the southern basin. Some thunderstorms are concentrated in the western Bay of Campeche, where a weak surface trough is present. Otherwise, modest subtropical ridging from high pressure NE of the region is leading to mainly moderate or weaker easterly winds through the basin, with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by late Sat morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Strong high pressure will follow the front promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean is supporting scattered moderate convection N of 17N and W of 80W. Otherwise, the seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades through the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate, highest in the south-central basin. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Fri, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough seas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight and Fri. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this convective activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough from 31N52W to near 26N62W is inducing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 120 nm E of its axis. A 1012 mb low pressure centered near 21N37W is also generated scattered moderate convection N of its center to about 25N, between 32W and 28W, where fresh E winds and locally rough seas are also pressure. Elsewhere, a mainly weak pressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters through Fri. A cold front will reach the NE waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front with gale conditions possible in the vicinity of 31N70W by Sun night.