Tropical Cyclone Discussion

596
WTPZ41 KNHC 152049
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
300 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026

Trudy's intensification appears to have temporarily paused. An Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the hurricane 
a few hours ago and reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 
84 kt and a central pressure near 978 mb.  Satellite imagery shows 
an attempt to form an eye, but it has not yet fully cleared out. 
The various satellite intensity estimates have changed little over 
the past few hours, and the initial intensity remains 80 kt based 
on them and the aircraft data.  The satellite imagery suggests a 
tongue of dry air is wrapping into the cyclone around the north 
side of the central dense overcast, and this may be responsible for 
the pause in the development.

The initial motion is north-northwestward or 345/5 kt. The 
hurricane is currently heading for a weakness in the subtropical 
ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough extending from the 
Yucatan Peninsula westward to central Mexico. During the next 36 h, 
this feature should weaken and move eastward, allowing a mid- to 
upper-level ridge to develop over Mexico. This evolution should 
cause Trudy to turn northwestward roughly parallel to the coast of 
Mexico. The bulk of the track guidance keeps the center just 
offshore of the coast. However, any track to the right of the 
official forecast - such as shown by the GFS - would bring the 
center onshore. After 72 h, low- to mid-level ridging to the north 
of the cyclone should steer it slowly westward. The new track 
forecast is a little to the east of the previous forecast through 
36 h, similar to the previous forecast from 36-72 h, and a little 
north of the previous forecast from 72-120 h.

Except for the apparent tongue of dry air, conditions appear 
favorable for steady to rapid development during the next 24-36 h. 
The new intensity forecast keeps the peak intensity of 125 kt from 
the previous advisory, which is near or a little above the upper 
edge of the intensity guidance.  After 36 h, there should be 
increasing southwesterly shear that will likely halt development. 
Even with the forecast track keeping the center offshore, the 
cyclone will likely be close enough to land to cause the cyclone 
to weaken. However, any track to the left and farther offshore of 
the current forecast would let Trudy stay stronger than currently 
forecast, while any track that the brings the center inland would 
cause rapid weakening and possibly dissipation. Beyond 72 h, strong 
shear should cause continued weakening even though the center is 
moving away from land.  The intensity forecast follows the overall 
trend of the guidance, and it is near the upper edge of the 
guidance.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the 
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. There is 
an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts. A 
Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a 
portion of the southwestern Mexican coast, and additional watches 
will likely be required further up the coast tonight or Friday.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest 
Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the 
weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, 
Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
3. Large swells will begin to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico Friday and continue through the weekend. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 13.7N 101.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 14.3N 101.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 15.2N 102.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 16.3N 102.9W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  17/1800Z 17.5N 103.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  18/0600Z 18.8N 104.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  18/1800Z 19.8N 105.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  19/1800Z 20.5N 107.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  20/1800Z 20.5N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH