Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
593 WTPZ31 KNHC 152049 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Trudy Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Thu Oct 15 2026 ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TRUDY EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 101.7W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico north of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo southward to Zihuatanejo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico north of Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo southward to Zihuatanejo. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue monitor the progress of Trudy. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required for portions of these areas later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 101.7 West. Trudy is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night or Saturday. On the forecast track the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday. Trudy has changed little in strength during the past few hours, and maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast to resume tonight, and Trudy is forecast to become a major hurricane Friday or Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area area by early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread into the hurricane watch area on Saturday. RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest Mexican coast in Guerrero. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the weekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Trudy, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next day or so and continue through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.