Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

586
WTPZ21 KNHC 152048
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE TRUDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212026
2100 UTC THU OCT 15 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 101.7W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  50SE  40SW  80NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE  90SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 101.7W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 101.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.3N 101.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.2N 102.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.3N 102.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.5N 103.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 18.8N 104.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.8N 105.8W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.5N 107.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.5N 108.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 101.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 16/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z