Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
885 AXNT20 KNHC 151605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW to 1008 mb low pressure captured by recent ASCAT scatterometer data at 06N33.5W to 03N39W. The ITCZ extends from 03N39W to the coast of northern South America at 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 14W and 25W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm in the SE semicircle and 240 nm in the NW semicircle of the low. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean is supporting isolated to widely scattered showers across the southern half of the basin. A pair of weak surface troughs are analyzed in the SW Gulf with little impacts. Otherwise, broad ridging extends across the basin with moderate E-SE winds dominating. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean are supporting isolated to widely scattered showers over the NW portion of the basin. A surface trough extends from 20N84W to eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua at 13N84W. These features support moderate isolated strong convection from 15N to 21N between 77W and 83W. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the S-central Caribbean with moderate to fresh elsewhere west of 68W, except gentle to moderate in the SW Caribbean S of 11N, and near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Seas are mainly 3 ft E of 68W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere except slight in the SW Caribbean and near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming weekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean today and tonight. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this convective activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal trough is in the central Atlantic extending from N of the area through 31N52W to 26N63W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 29N within 60-120 nm ahead of the trough. Moderate SW winds are across the same area with 6-8 ft seas. Recent ASCAT scatterometer data showed a 1013 mb low pressure off to the SE near 21N37W with a N to S oriented surface trough through the low. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 19N to 23N between 27W and 32W, and also from 22N to 26N between 33W and 40W. Moderate to fresh winds are found from 20N to 27N between 30W and 40W near the low and trough. Seas are 6-9 ft there. Seas are 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters E of 55W. Please refer to the ITCZ/monsoon trough section for additional convection with an embedded low in the monsoon trough. A broad and weak pressure pattern dominates the remainder of the basin. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the majority and rest of the basin, locally fresh from the SE Bahamas to the Windward Passage and NE Cuba, and S of 10N to the W of 55W near the coast of northern South America. Seas are 4-7 ft in N-NE swell N of 27N between 55W and 65W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere W of 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters through Fri. A cold front will reach the NE waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front.