Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
271 AXNT20 KNHC 150945 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf late on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf trough Sun. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends SW to 05N53W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N53W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 11N and E of 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean is supporting showers across the western half of the basin. A high pressure ridge extends from a 1019 mb high center that is over the Florida Panhandle. Recent scatterometer data along with buoy observations reveal moderate to fresh east winds east of 90W, and moderate east to southeast winds west of 90W. Over the eastern Bay of Campeche, a surface trough is generating scattered showers and fresh to near gale force SE to E winds. Seas basin- wide are slight to moderate. Locally higher seas are likely with the convection associated with the trough offshore Yucatan. Otherwise, the remnants of a surface trough are supporting scattered showers in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf late Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean are supporting isolated showers across the western half of the basin, except for scattered showers and tstms along a surface trough that extends from 13N81W to 20N81W. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong E to SE winds in the vicinity of this convective activity where seas to 8 ft are likely. Otherwise, surface ridging N of the region, is supporting moderate to fresh easterlies in the central Caribbean and moderate or weaker trades elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 ft over the NW and E basin, and 5 to 6 ft over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming weekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Moisture associated with an uper-level trough over the central Caribbean will reach the NW Caribbean today, keeping the chances of showers and thunderstorms across the basin high. Gusty winds and rough seas will be associated with this convective activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed along 67W with scattered showers in its vicinity. Surface high pressure over the SE CONUS and NE of Bermuda support mainly light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas over the west and central subtropical Atlantic waters. Fresh easterly winds are ongoing in the Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise, the subtropical eastern Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which is generally supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW Africa and 22W, including the waters adjacent to the Canary Islands. A 1011 mb low is located near 21N36W, which is generating scattered showers from 19N to 27N between 28W and 39W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the northern semicircle of the low to approximately 27N along with rough seas to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough E of the Bahamas is forecast to dissipate later today. A cold front will reach the NE waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front.