Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
817 AXPZ20 KNHC 150856 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 19.2N 108.5W at 15/0900 UTC, and is stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 18N to 20N between 107W and 109W. Simon has been nearly stationary for the past few hours, but its longer-term motion has been a southwestward drift. The storm is likely to meander within very weak steering currents during the next 12-24 h. However, a turn to the northwest seems likely on Friday. The system is forecast to maintain its intensity the next 12 hours or so, then continue a weakening trend. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest updates as Simon is expected to pass near or west of that area this weekend. Large swells will likely affect portions of the coast of west- central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Recently upgraded Hurricane Trudy is centered near 12.9N 101.6W at 15/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 24 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection within 45 nm of center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 96W and 104W. The system will maintain a general northwestward track before a gradual turn toward the north- northwest during the next day or so. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north- northwest and possibly north is anticipated. The latest intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification during the next 24 h, with Trudy expected to become a major hurricane by Friday, followed by additional strengthening through Saturday. By day 3, increasing vertical wind shear and the entrainment of drier mid-level air are expected to induce weakening. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches will likely be required for portions of the coast later this morning. Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated higher totals around 12 inches across Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest coast of Mexico between Guerrero and Michoacan. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the weekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells generated by Trudy will start to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next day or so, and continue into the weekend. Swells may impact southern Baja California later this weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Trudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 11N92W, then resumes from near 10N103W to 03N114W. The ITCZ extends from 03N114W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 93W and 106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon and recently upgraded Hurricane Trudy. Aside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail across the waters west of Baja California and extend to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in merging SW and NW swell. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds, and moderate seas are over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon is near 19.2N 108.5W at 2 AM PDT, and is stationary. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Simon will move to 19.1N 108.5W this afternoon, 19.6N 108.9W Fri morning, 20.5N 109.8W Fri afternoon, 21.3N 110.9W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 22.2N 112.0W Sat afternoon, and become a remnant low and move to 23.2N 113.0W Sun morning. Simon will change little in intensity as it moves to near 26.0N 114.5W early Mon. Recently upgraded Hurricane Trudy is near 12.9N 101.6W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Trudy will move to 13.4N 101.9W this afternoon, 14.2N 102.3W Fri morning, 15.1N 102.8W Fri afternoon, 16.1N 103.4W Sat morning, 17.4N 104.4W Sat afternoon, and 18.8N 105.5W Sun morning. Trudy will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.5N 107.3W early Mon. Elsewhere rough seas in NW swell west of Baja California will diminish through early today. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected late this week through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds behind a cold front moving across the waters N of the area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the waters N of 04N. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas in SW swell, prevail over the remainder of the offshore waters. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW swell across much of the forecast waters through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. New SW swell will bring rough seas over the waters south and west of the Galapagos Islands Fri through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas cover the waters N of 10N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds and moderate to rough seas in merging NW and SW swell prevail S of 10N and W of 110W. Moderate winds and moderate to rough seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, large SW swell moving into the regional waters will raise seas to 8 ft and greater to S of 10N and west of 100W over the next couple of days.