Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

413
WTPZ25 KNHC 150231
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026
0300 UTC THU OCT 15 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  15SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE  30SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 108.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 108.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N 108.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.7N 109.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.8N 110.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.7N 111.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.8N 112.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 24.6N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.6N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 108.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z