Tropical Cyclone Discussion
248 WTPZ41 KNHC 142047 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Wed Oct 14 2026 Trudy continues to become better organized, with the central convective mass becoming larger and colder. Recent SAR, ASCAT and SSMIS passes give higher confidence that the center position is now embedded underneath the middle of the impressive-looking convective overcast. The latest TAFB intensity estimate is 4.0/65 kt, and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have been increasing, now in the 44-51 kt range. The ASCAT-B pass from around 16Z had a peak wind retrieval of 51 kt. Based on the above data, the initial intensity is conservatively set at 55 kt. Based on microwave center fixes over the past 6 to 12 hours, Trudy has been moving west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt, to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends over central Mexico. However, the ridge is expected to weaken on Thursday, as Trudy moves closer to Hurricane Simon. The two tropical cyclones are forecast to be within 500 miles of each other by Thursday evening, which could be close enough to influence each other's steering. By Thursday, an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough in the west-central Gulf of America and this possible interaction with Simon should cause Trudy to turn north-northwestward and possibly northward for a time Thursday night or Friday. As Simon finally moves northwest late in the forecast period, it should allow the ridge to build back in and induce Trudy to make a leftward turn back toward the northwest. Since Simon is a small tropical cyclone though, it may not have much of an influence on Trudy's track, which could allow Trudy to turn west-northwestward and away from the coast of Mexico by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one through 96 hours, but is farther south at day 5, indicating a sharper turn toward the west-northwest or west by the end of the forecast period. Environmental conditions continue to look quite favorable along Trudy's track through the next 60 hours, although recent NESDIS glider observations suggest that Trudy may briefly traverse lower ocean heat content for 24 hours between this evening and Thursday evening before reaching higher ocean heat content again. The wind shear will remain low through about 60 hours, but the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance shows southwesterly vertical wind shear around 20 kt from day 3 to 5. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, calling for steady to rapid intensification over the next couple of days, peaking around 115 kt around hour 60. This is similar to the HCCA, GDMI, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B, all of which peak Trudy as a major hurricane between 105-120 kt in about 60 hours. After that time, increasing wind shear and drier air should cause steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the high end of the overall model guidance suite. NHC continues to call for Trudy to get close to the coast of Mexico as a major hurricane, and given the track uncertainty, residents of southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue to closely monitor the progress of Trudy, and be ready to possibly implement their hurricane plan. Key Messages: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of these areas later today or tonight. 2. Large swells will likely begin to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico late this week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 11.9N 100.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 12.5N 100.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 13.2N 101.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 14.0N 101.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 14.9N 102.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 15.8N 102.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 16.9N 103.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 18.8N 105.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 19.4N 107.2W 65 KT 75 MPH