Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

849
WTPZ25 KNHC 141446
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026
1500 UTC WED OCT 14 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 108.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 108.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 108.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.5N 108.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.3N 108.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.2N 108.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.9N 108.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.2N 109.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  5NE   5SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.6N 110.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 24.5N 112.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 26.9N 113.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 108.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z