Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
551 AXPZ20 KNHC 140911 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Simon is centered near 19.8N 107.9W at 14/0900 UTC, moving southwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 30 nm of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18N to 21N between 106W and 109W. The hurricane is moving slowly southwestward within very weak steering currents. This will likely cause the system to meander well offshore of west- central Mexico during the next couple of days. Little change in intensity is forecast the next couple of days. Simon could be near Las Islas Marias on Thursday, where a Hurricane Watch remains in effect. Interests in west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest updates. Additional watches or warnings could be required over the next day or two. Large swells generated by Simon will likely affect portions of the coast of west- central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Trudy is centered near 11.1N 99.0W at 14/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated at near 17 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 95W and 102W. Trudy is forecast to continue on a general northwestward to west- northwestward motion the next few days. Trudy is expected to rapidly intensify and should become a hurricane within 24 h, reach major hurricane status somewhere around 48 h and continue to intensify for around 60-72 h before starting a weakening trend. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of these areas later today. Swells generated by Trudy will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico the end of the week into the weekend, and southern Baja California later this weekend. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Trudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N89W, then resumes from near 08N103W to 05N112W. The ITCZ extends from 05N112W to 05N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 83W and 90W, and from 00N to 06N between 100W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy. Aside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, moderate winds prevail across the waters west of Baja California, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in merging Sw and NW swell. Fresh to locally strong winds, and moderate seas, are over the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are over the remainder of the Gulf of California. Fresh winds extend across the Gulf of Tehuantepec westward to the northern periphery of Trudy. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 19.8N 107.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving southwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Simon will move to 19.6N 108.0W this afternoon, 19.4N 108.1W Thu morning, 19.2N 108.3W Thu afternoon, 19.6N 108.5W Fri morning, 20.9N 109.1W Fri afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 109.8W Sat morning. Simon will move inland near 24.6N 111.1W early Sun. Tropical Storm Trudy is near 11.1N 99.0W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Trudy will move to 11.5N 100.2W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.4N 101.3W Thu morning, 13.1N 101.8W Thu afternoon, 14.0N 102.4W Fri morning, 14.9N 102.9W Fri afternoon, and 16.0N 103.6W Sat morning. Trudy will change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 105.2W early Sun. Elsewhere rough seas in NW swell west of Baja California will gradually diminish today. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected late this week through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds behind a cold front moving across the waters north of the area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas over the outer periphery of Trudy dominate the outer offshore waters to the southwest of Guatemala. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas in SW swell prevail over the remainder of the offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas well offshore of Guatemala, on the outer periphery of Tropical Storm Trudy, will diminish today as Trudy moves further from the area. A set of SW swell will bring rough seas over the waters south of the Galapagos Islands Fri and Sat. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW swell across much of the forecast waters through the remainder of the week and the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas cover the waters N of 15N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds and moderate to rough seas in merging NW and SW swell generally prevail S of 18N W of 100W, except for moderate winds near the equator. For the forecast, large SW swell will affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days, followed by another pulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W of 100W Wed night.