Tropical Cyclone Discussion

845
WTPZ41 KNHC 140848
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
300 AM CST Wed Oct 14 2026
 
Trudy continues to be a complicated storm to locate and forecast. A 
recent ASCAT pass shows that the center is farther west-southwest 
than the previous best track position. In addition, the ASCAT pass 
was also used to adjust the wind radii for the cyclone. The 
satellite presentation shows that the bulk of the convection remains 
on the north side of the storm, but recently new deep convection has 
developed over the center with cloud tops colder than -70 C based 
on the infrared imagery. Based on the latest TAFB Dvorak and 
UW-CIMSS intensity estimates, the initial intensity for Trudy has 
been raised to 45 kt.
 
The repositioning of the center based on the previously mentioned 
ASCAT pass has long-reaching impacts for the track forecast. With 
the initial position farther west-southwest than before, the updated 
track has been generally shifted west of the previous forecast. The 
current track forecast has Trudy being steered by a mid-level ridge 
over the southern United States for the next 72 h. Afterwards, the 
uncertainty in the track becomes larger than normal due to the 
cyclone entering a region of weaker steering flow. This occurs due 
to the previously mentioned mid-level ridge retreating as a trough 
moves over the western United States. The current NHC track 
forecast heavily favors the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. In this 
current track forecast, the center of the cyclone does remain 
offshore of southwestern Mexico, but there is still a lot of 
uncertainty regarding the long-range track forecast.
 
The environmental conditions are very favorable for strengthening, 
and Trudy is expected to rapidly intensify and should become a 
hurricane within 24 h. Trudy is forecast to reach major hurricane 
status somewhere around 48 h and continue to intensify for around 
60-72 h. After that, wind shear is expected to steadily increase as 
mid-level relative humidity decreases, thus a general weakening 
trend is expected to occur. The new intensity forecast is generally 
about the same as the previous one, however slower weakening is 
shown late in the period since the new forecast remains offshore. 
The current intensity forecast is still on the upper end of the 
guidance envelope, but is in good agreement with HCCA and GDMI 
forecast aids.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and
into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and
storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of
these areas later today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0900Z 11.1N  99.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 11.5N 100.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 12.4N 101.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 13.1N 101.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 14.0N 102.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  16/1800Z 14.9N 102.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 16.0N 103.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 18.5N 105.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 20.4N 106.8W   85 KT 100 MPH