Tropical Cyclone Discussion
280 WTPZ41 KNHC 140254 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 900 PM CST Tue Oct 13 2026 Tropical Storm Trudy has a fairly large circulation with several outer banding features propagating outward in a manner consistent with a diurnal pulse. Despite the large apparent size, which dwarfs nearby Hurricane Simon, the core of Trudy is analyzed to be somewhat compact with tropical-storm-force winds limited to the northern semicircle of the circulation and no farther than 60 n mi from the center. It was a bit difficult to analyze the initial center position for this advisory. Late arriving Oceansat-3 scatterometer data and AMSR3 microwave imagery suggest that the center of Trudy may have been somewhat north of the best track position earlier today. The objective and subjective satellite fixes also range by several degrees. The initial position blends these available data with the last few visible satellite images of the day and maintains continuity with the previous forecast track. Trudy's intensity was a much easier analysis, and is increased to 40 kt for this advisory, which blends the objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, and recent short-term trends in the satellite presentation of the system. The track forecast is difficult and uncertain, with higher than normal spread in the guidance from 72 h onward. The initial motion of Trudy is northwestward (320/9 kt), and a general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through 72 hr as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge over the southern United States. As previously stated, the track forecast is more uncertain than usual by 72 h as Trudy arrives into a region with weak steering flow between the retreating mid-level ridge and an approaching trough over the western United States. The deterministic global models are significantly slower than the HFIP Corrected Consensus Aid (HCCA), Google DeepMind (GDMI), the European Centre's AIFS, and the AI-GFS. The new track forecast closely follows HCCA and GDMI, which have been the best-performing track forecast aids this season. Compared to the previous forecast, the new NHC track is faster and nudged east of the previous one, especially at and beyond 72 h. This brings Trudy inland over western Mexico later this weekend with the cyclone emerging in the southern Gulf of California by early next week. If Trudy tracks farther inland over western Mexico, the circulation may not survive and rapidly dissipate inland. Regardless of the exact track, Trudy is expected to approach the coast of Mexico as a major hurricane later this week. The center of Trudy appears nestled under a small and incipient central dense overcast. While a short-term trend on satellite, this change in organization of a small inner core combined with extremely favorable environmental conditions supports an aggressive intensity forecast that explicitly depicts rapid intensification and makes Trudy a hurricane within 24 h. This is also supported by some of the statistical rapid intensity guidance. The new intensity forecast is adjusted slightly above the previous one, in agreement with GDMI and HCCA, our best performing intensity guidance this season. GDMI, HCCA, and the NHC forecast are on the higher end of the intensity guidance, though this appears the most likely solution based on the official track forecast. The hurricane regional models, which can be more skillful for intensity than the coarser global models, use the GFS for initialization and boundary conditions. For this cycle, the GFS track is unrealistic, and the hurricane regional models appear to succumb to this and provide an outlier (weaker) outcome. At 120 h, the intensity forecast shows Trudy remaining a hurricane after exiting Mexico, though this intensity will be highly sensitive to the amount of land interaction. Key Messages: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of these areas on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 11.2N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 11.8N 98.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 12.6N 100.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 13.5N 100.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 14.3N 101.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 15.2N 101.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 16.3N 102.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 19.0N 104.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 21.0N 106.0W 75 KT 85 MPH