Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

518
AXNT20 KNHC 132351
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, from 10N to 24N, 
moving westward near 10 kt. A tight gradient between the wave and high
pressure to its north is producing fresh to strong easterly winds
from 18N to 24N between 27W and 36W. Seas with these winds are 8 
to 11 ft (2.5 to 3.5 m). Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection from 15N to 25N between 25W and 
33W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the 
wave from 10N to 18N.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W from 10N to 20N, 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An upper level trough to the N and
NW of the wave is shearing associated convection off to the east
of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 22N
between 38W and 48W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 
18.5N33W to 10N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10N49W to 09N60W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03.5N to 11N between 
25W and 35W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 50W and 60W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A 1020 mb high is centered over northern GA and extends a broad
ridge south-southwestward across the basin, behind the dissipated
cold front in the Straits of Florida. The associated pressure gradient
is providing gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across 
the eastern half of the Gulf S of 28N, and east to southeast 
winds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin- wide are in the 
range of 2 to 4 ft, with slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft S of
25N between 84W and 90W. Fair skies prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure over the north-central Gulf will 
support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits 
to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. 
A cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Fri night, 
and reach from southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat 
night. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas will follow
the front, with gales possible off the coast of Mexico between 
Tampico and Coatzacoalcos late Fri night into Sun.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The tail-end of a narrow upper-level trough stretches southwestward
from the NW Bahamas across the northwestern Caribbean, and is
supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the
Gulf of Honduras northward to 20N and west of 80W, and across
Central America. A mid to upper- level low over the Windward
Passage continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms 
across the basin between 62W and 76W. This feature reflects at 
the surface as a trough that is moving westward across the central
Caribbean, while a 1010 mb low center has formed near 12.5N78W. 
Otherwise, the passage of a weakening cold front north of the area
along with low pressure east of the Bahamas are supporting a weak
pressure gradient across the region, resulting in moderate or 
weaker trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh 
winds across the central Caribbean where the most concentrated
convection is occurring.
For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain 
active across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated 
with an upper level low. Fresh E to SE winds will persist north of
13N south and southwest of Jamaica through mid week, north of 
broad low pressure over the southwest Caribbean. Trade winds will 
increase along with building seas over the south- central 
Caribbean as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A frontal trough extends from near 31N65W to the central Bahamas.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm northwest of the trough. 
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the Straits of 
Florida, and from 25N to 28N between 64W and 67W. Farther east, a
weak trough is analyzed from near 30N51W to 24N58W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of this 
feature. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are under 
the influence of the Azores ridge.  A weak pressure is generally 
allowing for light to gentle winds north of 18N west of 50W. Seas 
with these winds are 3 to 5 ft in north to northeast swell east of
65W, and in northeast to east swell west of 65W. Higher east 
winds of fresh to strong speeds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are near 
the east Atlantic tropical wave as described above under the 
Tropical Waves section. Fresh to strong winds are also ongoing 
between the west coast of Africa and the Canary Islands as noted 
in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass.
For the forecast west of 55W, a few thunderstorms are active 
along a trough reaching from south of Bermuda to the central 
Bahamas. A cold front front will move southward into the waters 
east of 75W into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through 
Thu. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move into the 
waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat 
morning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. 
Strong to near-gale force NE winds and rough seas to 12 ft will 
follow the front.