Tropical Cyclone Discussion
207 WTPZ41 KNHC 132037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212026 300 PM CST Tue Oct 13 2026 Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone continues to become better organized. Both microwave and geostationary satellite data indicate that the center is likely about 60 miles to the east-northeast of the previous estimate, and based on recent data, confidence in the initial position estimate is a little higher now. The improving low-level center appears to be located near the southwest edge of a recent burst of deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB is T2.5/35 kt, and a recent AiDT intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS is also 35 kt. An ASCAT pass from 1452 UTC had a couple of believable 31-kt vectors north of the center. Given the low bias of the ASCAT instrument due to its resolution, and based on the improving structure observed on satellite imagery since that time with increased banded convection near the low-level center, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Trudy with 35-kt winds. The initial motion estimate for Trudy is northwestward, or 320/7 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge persists over the northwestern Gulf of America. Thereafter, a turn more toward the north-northwest is likely as the ridge weakens. A decrease in forward speed is also expected by day 2 as the cyclone gets caught in weaker steering currents in between the weak ridge to its north and Hurricane Simon to its northwest. Spread in the track forecast is larger than normal from day 3 to 5, and some of this uncertainty is likely also due to uncertainty in Simon's track and strength. A cold front moving southward from Texas into Mexico toward the end of the forecast period could help draw Simon closer to the coastline of Mexico, if the front is potent enough. Regardless, Trudy could potentially be very close to the coast of Mexico as a hurricane over the weekend. The NHC forecast has been pushed to the right (east) of the previous forecast due to the farther east initial position and a net eastward shift in the model guidance during the first 3 days of the forecast. At days 4 and 5, the new NHC forecast is only slightly east of the previous NHC forecast, which would bring Trudy closer to the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. The new NHC forecast is very close to the latest Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean. Confidence in the track forecast remains low, especially from hour 72 to 120. The cyclone is forecast to traverse extremely favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions for the next 4 days or so. The NHC intensity forecast shows steady strengthening over the next 12 hours as the cyclone works to develop a convective core. After that time, rapid intensification is forecast during the 12 to 60 h time window. Some of the SHIPS rapid intensification guidance shows a fairly high chance of rapid intensification over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast shows 80 knots of strengthening over the next 72 h, and is in excellent agreement with the latest HCCA and GDMI. 90 percent of the Google DeepMind Ensemble Members are forecasting Trudy to become a major hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and it's possible that Trudy could get stronger in between the day 3 and 4 points, when the cyclone is likely to peak in intensity. Beyond day 4, the possibility of increasing vertical wind shear and land interaction could induce some weakening, and most of the guidance shows the system losing some strength after day 4. Confidence in the intensity forecast is above average. We are fairly confident it will become a strong hurricane due to the favorable environmental conditions and model guidance. Key Messages: 1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 10.6N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 11.3N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 12.0N 99.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 12.7N 100.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 13.5N 100.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 14.3N 101.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 15.3N 101.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 17.1N 103.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 19.1N 105.2W 100 KT 115 MPH