Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
353 WTPZ35 KNHC 130253 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 800 PM MST Mon Oct 12 2026 ...SIMON MOVING SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST... ...FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 107.0W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has replaced the Hurricane Watch from Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa with a Tropical Storm Watch. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Esuinapa to Bahia Tempehuaya A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should continue to monitor as changes to watches and warnings are possible later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 107.0 West. Simon is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn to the northwest is expected to occur later tonight. Simon is expected to continue on a slow, northwestward motion over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the north shortly thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast over the next day or so, but Simon could re-intensify some by Wednesday and is forecast to remain a hurricane through midweek. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely to occur in Las Islas Marias beginning on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on Tuesday and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across coastal west-central Mexico with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over the state of Sinaloa by Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is possible along the immediate coast near Las Islas Marias. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.