Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
977 AXNT20 KNHC 122302 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 31W, south of 21N, moving westward near 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed near the wave axis at 17.5N31W. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds to 25 kt within 300 nm of center across the NE and SE semicircles, where seas are 7 to 11 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is present from 11N to 23N and between 23W and 35W. Environmental conditions appear, at best, marginally conducive for any development of this system during the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the couple of days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to northwestward. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and through next 7 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed 43W-44W, S of 19N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 14N and between 39W and 46W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, and then to 07N20W, then to a 1009 mb low near 17.5N31W, then to 13N41W to 07.5N50W. Aside from the convection described above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 12N between 35N and 39W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends across S Florida from the central Everglades to 23N90W to the S Texas coastal waters. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the frontal boundary W of 86W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also evident in the western Bay of Campeche near a surface trough. Otherwise, 1021 mb high pressure is centered over SE Mississippi, and extends a broad ridge across the basin, which supports gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-5 ft across the Gulf, highest offshore of TX. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through Wed. High pressure building in the wake of the front over the north-central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northwest Gulf Fri night, and reach from southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front, with strong gales possible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri night through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A vigorous upper-level low over the central Caribbean along 72W has created a trough at the surface near 72W, and are supporting scattered moderate isolated strong convection across the basin S of 17N between 67W and 75W. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough supports numerous moderate to strong convection S of 10N and W of 77W and across Central America. A tighter pressure gradient due to a strong subtropical ridge over the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America is forcing fresh to strong E winds and seas of 7-8 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are evident in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean, along with the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere to the E, moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be active across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated with an upper level low. Fresh to strong winds across the central south- Caribbean will diminish through tonight as high pressure north of the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will persist through mid week across the Caribbean, then increase again later in the week as high pressure builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is stalling across the western Atlantic, and extends from 31N73W to the SE Florida coast near Ft Lauderdale, and is becoming nearly stationary. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in a band about 210 nm SE of the boundary. Moderate NW to W winds and seas of 3-6 ft are seen behind the front Farther east, a stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N35W and continues southwestward to 24.5N56W and then to 27N67W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present along the front between 56W and 67W. Fresh NE winds are within 120-180 nm north of the front and increase to strong speeds E of 43. Seas are 7-11 ft in NW to N swell N of the front and E of 60W. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between these fronts, the deep tropics and high pressure in the central Atlantic sustain moderate to fresh trades winds and moderate seas across much of the SW North Atlantic S of 23N, away from any aforementioned features or tropical waves. Moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the northern portion of the cold front across the area waters will continue to drift eastward tonight, stall from Bermuda to Miami on Tue, then dissipate through Wed. A second reinforcing front will move southward into the waters east of 75W Tue into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near- gale force NE winds and rough seas will follow the front.