Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
642 WTPZ35 KNHC 122051 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 200 PM MST Mon Oct 12 2026 ...SIMON MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 100 MPH WINDS... ...FLOODING RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 106.8W ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM W OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm warning from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should continue to monitor as changes to watches and warnings are possible later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 106.8 West. Simon is moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), but is forecast to resume a slow northwestward motion by tonight which should then continue into early Tuesday. A gradual turn toward the northeast is forecast thereafter. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to be near Las Islas Marias tonight into Tuesday, and then approaching the west-central Mexico coastline on Wednesday into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast over the next day or so, but Simon could re-intensify some by Wednesday and is forecasted to remain a hurricane through midweek. Rapid weakening is likely after Simon moves inland late this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely to occur in the Hurricane Warning area of Las Islas Marias beginning tonight into Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across coastal west-central Mexico with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches over the state of Sinaloa by Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is possible along the immediate coast near Las Islas Marias. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.