Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
567 AXNT20 KNHC 121736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated and is now analyzed along 30W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed near the wave axis at 17N30W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present from 11N to 23N and between 22W and 34W. Scatterometer data from 1209 UTC indicate a large swath of fresh to strong winds associated with this system from 15N to 23N between 25W and 35W. Seas are 6-10 ft in the area described. Environmental conditions appear, at best, marginally conducive for any development of this system during the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the couple of days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north- northwestward. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and also through next 7 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 04N44W to 19N42W, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 12N and between 39W and 45W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, and then curves to 08N20W, then to a 1009 mb low near 17N30W, then to 05.5N51W. Aside from the convection described above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 11N between 31N and 37W, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring along and within 100 nm of the monsoon trough E of 21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from near Naples, FL to 23N90W to 25N94W, where it becomes a warm front that extends to the TX coast near 27N97W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the frontal boundary. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also evident in the western Bay of Campeche near a surface trough. Otherwise, surface ridging across the basin supports moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 2-5 ft across the Gulf. For the forecast, a stationary front extending from near Naples, Florida to 23N90W to 25N94W will dissipate through Wed. High pressure building in the wake of the front over the north-central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow a front moving into the northwest Gulf Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low over the central Caribbean along with a surface trough near 72W support scattered moderate convection across areas S of 15N between 66W and 75W. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough supports scattered moderate convection S of 11N and W of 75W. A tighter pressure gradient due to a strong subtropical ridge over the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America forces fresh to strong E winds and seas of 6-8 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are evident in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean, along with the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas across the central south- Caribbean will diminish through tonight as high pressure north of the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will persist thereafter across the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N75W to 29N78W, then becomes stationary from that point to the FL coast near Port Saint Lucie. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and just ahead of the boundary. Moderate to fresh W winds and seas of 5-7 ft are seen N of 28N and W of 74W. Farther east, another stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N34W and continues southwestward to 24N55W and then to 26N69W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present along the front from 25N50W north and eastward. NE winds north of the front quickly increase to fresh to strong speeds, and also support seas of 6-10 ft in N swell N of the front. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between these fronts, deep tropics and a strong high pressure in the NW Atlantic sustain moderate to fresh trades winds and moderate seas across much of the SW North Atlantic S of 23N, away from any aforementioned features or tropical waves. Moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, a few thunderstorms are active along a cold front reaching from 31N75W to Fort Pierce, Florida. The front will generally stall from Bermuda to Miami Tue, then dissipate through Wed. A second front will move southward into the waters east of 75W Tue into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning.