Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

697
WTPZ25 KNHC 121456
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026
1500 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 106.5W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 106.5W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.4N 106.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 20.9N 107.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.3N 107.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 21.6N 107.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.2N 106.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 24.1N 106.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 106.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 12/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z