Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

623
WTPZ25 KNHC 120853
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026
0900 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.3W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 106.3W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 106.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.6N 106.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N 107.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.8N 107.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.3N 107.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.9N 107.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.4N 106.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 24.1N 105.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 106.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 12/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z