Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
900 AXNT20 KNHC 120537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis 14N31W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present from 10N to 18N and between 21W and 31W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured a large area of fresh to strong winds associated with this system. Seas are 6-10 ft in the area described. Environmental conditions appear, at best, marginally conducive for any development of this system during the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected over the couple of days for portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and also through next 7 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 19N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. A 1010 mb low is along the wave axis near 10N42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed in the vicinity of the low center, and mainly from 07N to 13N and between 35W and 45W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 13N16W and continues westward to 13N31W and then southwestward to 10N43W to 08N49W. The ITCZ extends from 08N49W to 06N57W. The significant convection near these boundaries is described in the Tropical Wave section. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from Venice, Florida, near 27N82W to 25N86W and then westward as a stationary front to 25N97W. A few showers are seen near the stationary boundary. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are also evident in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to storms that formed over Yucatan earlier today. A 1020 mb high pressure centered just south of Pensacola, Florida supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the basin, except for weaker winds and slight seas in the NE and SW Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move across the southeast Gulf then stall and dissipate through midweek. High pressure building in the wake of the front over the will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow a front moving into the northeast Gulf Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The storm activity has diminished in the eastern and central Caribbean in association with a large upper-level low moving westward across the area. However, some showers and isolated thunderstorms are still associated with this feature. Similar convection is found in the Bay Islands of Honduras, near the Cayman Islands and Jamaica and off Panama. A tighter pressure gradient across the south-central and SE Caribbean due to a strong subtropical ridge over the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America force fresh to strong eastern trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are evident in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean, along with the Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, with fresh to strong E winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These winds and seas will diminish Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf and western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for information on the disturbance west of the Cabo Verde Islands. A cold front exits the Carolinas and enters our area near 31N79W and continues southwestward to Cape Canaveral, Florida. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of the boundary. Farther east, another cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N39W and continues southwestward to 28N46W, followed by a stationary front to 25N60W and 27N68W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present within 120 nm of these boundaries. The pressure gradient between these fronts, deep tropics and a strong high pressure in the NW Atlantic sustain moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds and seas of 4-8 ft across much of the SW North Atlantic. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring behind the front in the central Atlantic. In the remainder of the Atlantic, high pressure dominates, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front moving off central Florida will reach from 31N77W to Jupiter Inlet, Florida late Mon, and from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Tue. The northern part of the front will continue to move eastward before stalling and dissipating through mid week, while the western part lifts northward across the Bahamas and Florida while dissipating. A cold front may move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning.