Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
973 WTPZ35 KNHC 120248 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 800 PM MST Sun Oct 11 2026 ...SIMON MOVING SLOWLY JUST OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...THREAT OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 106.0W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from Punta San Telmo northward to Playa Perula. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 106.0 West. Simon is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general heading is expected to continue into early Tuesday. A turn toward the northeast is forecast thereafter, and Simon is expected to move inland across west-central Mexico around midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Simon is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast, but Simon is expected to remain a hurricane through midweek. Rapid weakening is likely after Simon moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely occuring in the Hurricane Warning area, with hurricane conditions spreading northward later tonight into Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated additional amounts of 8 inches over portions of the states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa through early Thursday. Isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches are possible over portions of the states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides or worsen any on-going flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center approaches land. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.