Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

954
WTPZ25 KNHC 120246
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026
0300 UTC MON OCT 12 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 106.0W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  956 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  25SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  50SW  40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 45NE  90SE  90SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 106.0W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 105.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.8N 107.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.4N 107.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.0N 106.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 23.4N 106.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 105.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 106.0W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 12/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z