Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

405
AXNT20 KNHC 112302
TWDAT 
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Oct 12 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 20N, moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed along
the wave axis 14N29W. The most recent satellite scatterometer data
indicate strong S to SW winds to 30 kt across the SE quadrant, 
and fresh to strong NE to E winds across the N semicircle of center.
Seas are 8 to 11 ft across these areas. A cluster of moderate to
strong convection is just E of the low center. Environmental 
conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development 
of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds 
become too strong for any further development by midweek. Regardless,
heavy rainfall is expected over the next few days for portions 
of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to
north-northwestward. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone 
development in the next 48 hours, and also through next 7 days.
Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W/41W, south of 19N, 
moving westward near 15 kt. A 1010 mb low is along the wave axis 
near 10N41W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed in the vicinity of the low center, and mainly from 08N 
to 13N and between 38W and 45W.
The tropical that wave previously located over the NW Caribbean 
has now its axis over the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala. 
Please, see more information in the eastern Pacific Tropical 
Weather Discussion.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of west
Africa near 12N16W and continues westward to 14N29W to 10N41W to
08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to 08N60W. Aside from the 
convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 38W. 
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends from near Sarasota, Florida across the
central Gulf to near NE Mexico. Some shower activity, with embedded
thunderstorms, are along the frontal boundary. A band of showers
and thunderstorms is noted ahead of the front affecting portions
of central and south Florida. A 1021 mb high pressure has shifted
southward into the north-central Gulf, and it is located just S 
of SE Louisiana. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 
to 5 ft prevail N of the front. Light to gentle winds and slight 
to moderate seas are south of the front. 
For the forecast, the front will move across the southeast Gulf 
and stall, then dissipate through mid week. High pressure building
behind the front over the north-central Gulf will support E to 
SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas 
coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Looking 
ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow
another cold front moving into the northeast Gulf Fri night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A large upper level low center is shifting westward across the 
eastern Caribbean, generating a significant area of showers and
thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure remains well north 
of the basin across the NW Atlantic. The modest pressure gradient
across the Caribbean is forcing moderate to fresh easterly trade
winds and moderate to locally rough seas to 8 ft across most of 
the basin E of 82W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring S of 
Hispaniola, through the Windward Passage, and offshore Colombia.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the 
eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, with fresh to strong 
E winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off 
Colombia. These winds and seas will diminish Tue as the high 
pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the
Gulf and western Atlantic. 
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N40W and continues
southwestward to 27N50W, then becomes stationary to 27N68W. Fresh
to strong NE to E winds follow the front E of 65W. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the front. Meanwhile,
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue in a 75 nm
wide band off NE Florida, ahead of a cold front moving across 
central Florida. The modest pressure gradient between a strong 
ridge over the NW Atlantic and the aforementioned front north of 
the Leeward Islands is sustaining moderate easterly winds S of 
25N W of 65W, including the Bahamas and the Old Bahamas Channel.  
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence
of a 1024 mb high pressure located N of the Madeira Islands near
35N17.5W. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and
lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports 
moderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough 
to about 24N and E of 44W, with stronger winds near the tropical
wave located along 29W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 
moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front moving off northeast 
Florida will reach from 31N77W to Jupiter Inlet, Florida late 
Mon, and from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Tue. The
northern part of the front will continue to move eastward before
stalling and dissipating through mid week, while the western 
part lifts northward across the Bahamas and Florida while 
dissipating. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the waters
off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning.