Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
905 WTPZ35 KNHC 112054 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 300 PM CST Sun Oct 11 2026 ...CORE OF HURRICANE SIMON CONTINUES TO SKIRT THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY OCCURING... ...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FARTHER UP THE MEXICAN COAST... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 105.8W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for north of El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of El Roblito to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Simon was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 105.8 West. Simon is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days with a gradual turn to the north and north-northeast on Tuesday into Wednesday. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to pass near the coast of west-central Mexico this afternoon and evening before moving a little farther away on Monday. Simon is then forecast to turn back towards the coast of Mexico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast but Simon is still expected to be a strong hurricane as it passes near the coast of west-central Mexico this afternoon and evening. Simon is now expected to remain a hurricane when it moves farther offshore again on Monday and Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely occuring in the Hurricane Warning area, with hurricane conditions spreading northward later this evening into Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday night. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated additional amounts of 8 inches over portions of the states of Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa through early Thursday. Isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches are possible over portions of the states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides or worsen any on-going flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center approaches land. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.