Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
665 WTPZ35 KNHC 111741 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 1200 PM CST Sun Oct 11 2026 ...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE SIMON MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 105.5W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Simon was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 105.5 West. Simon is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or two. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to pass very near the coast of west-central Mexico this afternoon and tonight and remain close to the coast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While some weakening could occur, Simon is still forecast to be a major hurricane as it move very near the coast of west-central Mexico today. More significant weakening could occur if the core of Simon moves fully onshore or interacts with the higher terrain. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). An ocean drifter very close to the center of Simon recently reported a minimum pressure of 945 mb (27.90 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely occuring in the southern part of the Hurricane Warning area, with hurricane conditions spreading northward later this afternoon into Monday. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center approaches land. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.