Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
027 AXPZ20 KNHC 111559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Simon is centered near 19.2N 105.3W at 11/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 155 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate t scattered strong convection is within 60 nm of center, except 90 nm SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in a band to the E of center from 13N to 18N between 102W and 104W. Simon is moving toward the north-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or two. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to be very near the coast of west-central Mexico later today and remain close to the coast on Monday. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While some weakening could occur, Simon is still forecast to move very near the coast of west-central Mexico as a major hurricane today. More significant weakening could occur if the core of Simon moves fully onshore or interacts with the higher terrain. Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, north of 05N. It is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through next 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N90W to 10N95W, then resumes near 12N120W to 10N130W. The ITCZ continues from 10N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 10N E of 95W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 06N W of 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Simon. The remnants of Rachel is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Southwestern United States. The last public advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system at 11/1500 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas on the southern side of the remnants of Rachel are impacting the northern Gulf of California. Wind flow around the system is also forcing fresh gap winds over portions of the central Gulf of California as well as over the waters west of Baja California Norte. Rough to very rough seas generated by Rachel continue to propagate across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Moderate to fresh N winds are blowing across the Tehuantepec area with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Simon, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon will move to 19.9N 105.6W this evening, 20.5N 106.0W Mon morning, 21.1N 106.4W Mon evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 106.8W Tue morning, 22.5N 106.9W Tue evening, and 23.0N 106.9W Wed morning. Simon will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 23.9N 106.4W early Thu. The remnants of Rachel will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds across the northern Gulf of California through early Mon morning. Winds and seas lingering west of the Baja California peninsula will gradually diminish through early this week. Moderate to fresh N winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern East Pacific are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally west- northwestward at around 10 kt. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail over the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are elsewhere N of 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 04N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight and Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Simon. A cold front is moving across the NE waters followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds and rough seas. Similar marine conditions are noted elsewhere N of 20N W of 110W. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the forecast area. For the forecast, as Rachel continues to move over the southwest United States, the cold front will remain over the northern forecast waters today, reaching from the northern Baja California to near 22N125W on Mon while gradually dissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days.