Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

276
WTPZ25 KNHC 111450
TCMEP5
 
HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026
1500 UTC SUN OCT 11 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 105.3W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  937 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE  90SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 105.3W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 105.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N 105.6W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.5N 106.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.1N 106.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   5SW   5NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.8N 106.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.5N 106.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.0N 106.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 23.9N 106.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 105.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 11/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z