Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
325 AXNT20 KNHC 111014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave and monsoon trough near 13N27W. The broad system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from 06N to 17N and between 22W and 36W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 17N and between 33W and 45W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to interact with an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over much of the NW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to a 1010 mb low near 14N27W, to a 1011 mb low near 10N41W and to 06N46W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection noted long the monsoon trough and E of 24W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from 30N84W to 25N97W, then becomes stationary to 23N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf waters. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed S of the front across the southwestern portion of the basin. Scattered showers are also evident near these troughs. The moderate pressure gradient between the high pressure over the southern United States and the aforementioned cold front support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the NW and north- central Gulf, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh SW winds, moderate seas, and scattered thunderstorms will persist over the NE Gulf through today. The front will move across the southeast Gulf through mid week. High pressure will build behind the front over the north-central Gulf, supporting E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast by mid week, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. High pressure north of the islands extends into the Caribbean, forcing moderate to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas across much of the basin. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off Colombia. A broad upper-level low paired with an induced surface trough approaching the Leeward Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean, affecting much of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, the surface trough will maintain unsettled weather across the NE Caribbean through today. High pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through the early part of the week, with fresh to strong E winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These winds and seas will diminish through mid week as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and continues southwestward to 28N54W, then becomes stationary to 31N70W. A few showers are noted near these boundaries. Meanwhile, showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident off NE Florida ahead of a cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of America. The modest pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the NW Atlantic and the aforementioned front and a trough north of the Leeward Islands sustain moderate to locally strong anticyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W and north of the front west of 50W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1025 mb high pressure located just SE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports moderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to about 26N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move off the NE Florida coast early Mon, reach from 31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida by early Tue, and then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Wed. Fresh N winds and building seas may follow another front reaching along 30N east of 75W by late Thu night.