Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
910 WTPZ33 KNHC 110855 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory Number 57 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026 ...RACHEL CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 116.1W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM N OF PUNTA BAJA MEXICO ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Watch for the southern California coast has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California and Baja California Sur, from Punta Eugenia northward to the U.S./Mexico Border * East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California, from Bahia De Los Angeles northward to Isla San Luis * Northwest Mexico from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 116.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this motion is expected to persist today as Rachel moves farther inland. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rachel should weaken quickly this morning and dissipate by this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions occuring over portions of the Baja California Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area will continue into this morning. Tropical storm conditions are also possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in eastern Baja California, and portions of northwest Mexico today. Strong gusty winds associated with the system are spreading over interior portions of the southwestern United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, today and tomrrow. RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 2 inches of rain to portions of northern Baja California this weekend. Rachel and its associated moisture will also bring rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches from Southern California into the Great Basin and portions of the southwestern United States this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for significant flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero. SURF: Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California today. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen this morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.