Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
650 WTPZ35 KNHC 110559 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 1200 AM CST Sun Oct 11 2026 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE SIMON APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 105.0W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area beginning tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Simon was located by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 105.0 West. Simon is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or two. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to be near or just inland over west-central Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are anticipated, but Simon is still forecast to approach the coast of west-central Mexico as a major hurricane later today. Rapid weakening could occur if the core of Simon moves fully onshore. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 928 mb (27.41 inches) based on Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the southern part of the Hurricane Warning area beginning early today, with tropical storm conditions expected as soon as later tonight with these winds spreading northward thereafter. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning in the next few hours. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through today. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.