Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
397 WTPZ33 KNHC 110550 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Advisory Number 56A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026 ....HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 116.5W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 36 MPH...57 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California and Baja California Sur, from Punta Eugenia northward to the U.S./Mexico Border * East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line * East coast of Baja California, from Bahia De Los Angeles northward to Isla San Luis * Northwest Mexico from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM PDT (0600 UTC), the poorly defined center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 36 mph (57 km/h), and this motion is expected to persist as Rachel moves farther inland over northern Baja California tonight. Rachel is forecast to dissipate on Sunday over the southwestern United States. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rachel should weaken quickly by Sunday morning and dissipate by Sunday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring over portions of the Baja California Peninsula within the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and will continue into Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are also possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California, and portions of northwest Mexico beginning tonight into early Sunday. Strong gusty winds associated with the system are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, tonight through early next week. RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Rachel and its associated moisture will also bring rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches in portions of the Southwest United States this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for significant flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero. SURF: Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California this weekend. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.