Tropical Cyclone Discussion

002
WTPZ43 KNHC 110243
TCDEP3
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel Discussion Number  56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
800 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
 
Rachel has lacked organized deep convection for more than 12 hours,
with much of the forcing associated with the system now driven by a
nearby mid- to upper-level trough rather than tropical processes. In
addition, the low-level circulation has become increasingly
elongated, and the center is no longer well-defined. Given these
structural changes and the lack of organized deep convection, Rachel
is now classified as a post-tropical cyclone. Based on these data,
and a previous ASCAT-B scatterometer pass earlier today, the initial
intensity was lowered to 50 kt.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or 015/31
kt, and the system is expected to accelerate as it moves inland. The
updated NHC track forecast was nudged eastward a bit, but otherwise
closely mirrors the previous forecast and aligns well with the
latest HCCA and GDMI consensus aids.
 
Rachel is now a post-tropical cyclone, but that does not mean the
threat has diminished. Watches and warnings remain unchanged for
Mexico and Southern California, since expected impacts from the
system remain the same and the remnants of Rachel will continue to
produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. See products issued by the
Weather Prediction Center and local National Weather Service offices
for more information.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rachel is expected to make landfall along the coast of northern
Baja California later tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in portions of northern Baja California and portions of
northwestern Mexico, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are also possible in extreme Southern
California, eastern Baja California, and portions of northwestern
Mexico where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect.
 
2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are
expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior
portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of
higher terrain, tonight and Sunday.
 
3. Rachel and its moisture will continue to spread over portions of
the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula.
This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the
potential for significant flash and urban flooding this weekend.
 
4. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period
southerly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja
California. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in
some areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet
above predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to
worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves associated
with Rachel coincide with high tides and already elevated water
levels. Hazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue into
early next week. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 30.0N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  11/1200Z 34.5N 114.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 24H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED