Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
593 AXNT20 KNHC 102308 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is added to the 1800 UTC surface map along 27W S of 20N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 20W and 30W. Another tropical wave is along 35W, south of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 15N between 30W and 43W. A tropical wave is over the NW Caribbean along 84W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. This wave continues to interact with an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection S of 18N between 80W and 85W. the wave is enhancing convection over much of Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues westward to 12N27W to 08N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N46W to NE Venezuela near 08.5N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, convection is limited elsewhere. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Flash flooding risk continues with Post-tropical cyclone Isaias as it moves trough the SE of the United States. It is located about 4 nm W of Birmingham, Alabama at 2100 UTC. A cold front has formed over the central Gulf, extending from Isaias through the western Florida Panhandle to near 24N96W. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture embedded in southerly flow sustain a 90 nm wide line of showers and thunderstorms from the Florida Big Bend to near 23N87W. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are occurring along and E of this line of weather. Moderate N to NE winds are in the wake of the front, with moderate to rough seas. Dry air follows the front. For the forecast, fresh SW winds, locally rough seas, and scattered thunderstorms will persist over the NE Gulf through tonight. Large NE swell will persist over the west-central Gulf into the overnight hours. The cold front will move across the southeast Gulf through mid week, while lifting northward as a dissipating warm front over the western Gulf. Looking ahead, high pressure will build behind the front over the north-central Gulf, supporting E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast by mid week, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. A very modest pressure gradient continues across the basin as high pressure is centered well N and NE of the region. The current pattern is forcing moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas to 7 ft across much of the central Caribbean, with fresh to locally strong winds offshore Colombia. Moderate E winds with moderate seas prevail across the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas are seen across the NW part of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through the early part of the week, with fresh to strong E winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These winds and seas will diminish through mid week as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the central Atlantic waters near 31N51W and continues southwestward to 29N55W, where it becomes a stationary front to 31N68W and then remains north of the area and into South Carolina. A diffluent pattern aloft and tropical moisture pushed northward by former Isaias sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 24N and W of 75W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail S of 24N between 60W and 70W and then veer SE to S through the Bahamas and the waters W of 70W. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across this area. An upper-level low is spinning just E of the Lesser Antilles, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. A surface trough is analyzed from 27N55W to 21N58W and continues to produce some convective activity. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1027 mb high pressure located just E of the Azores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports moderate to fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to about 22N and E of 35W to the coast of W Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the NE Florida coast early Mon, reach from 31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida by early Tue, and then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Wed. Looking ahead, fresh N winds and building seas may follow another front reaching along 30N east of 75W by late Thu night.