Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
989 WTPZ35 KNHC 102057 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 300 PM CST Sat Oct 10 2026 ...CATEGORY 4 SIMON MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 104.8W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion today. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case starting this afternoon. Additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Simon was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 104.8 West. Simon has resumed a slow motion toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to be near or just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday before moving further inland on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are anticipated tonight, but Simon is still forecast to approach the coast of west-central Mexico as a major hurricane on Sunday. Rapid weakening could occur if the core of Simon moves fully onshore by Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure measured by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is 932 mb (27.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the southern part of the Hurricane Warning area beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected as soon as later this afternoon, with these winds spreading northward thereafter. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning later this afternoon. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.