Hurricane Local Statement
740
WTUS86 KSGX 101507
HLSSGX
CAZ043-050-058-062-102315-
Tropical Storm Rachel Local Statement Advisory Number 54
National Weather Service San Diego CA EP182026
807 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026
This product covers EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
**Impacts from Tropical Storm Rachel Expected in San Diego County Late
Tonight through Sunday Afternoon**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for San Diego County
Coastal Areas, San Diego County Deserts, San Diego County
Mountains, and San Diego County Valleys
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 560 miles south-southwest of San Mateo Point CA or about
510 miles south-southwest of Mouth of Tijuana River CA
- 25.5N 119.6W
- Storm Intensity 60 mph
- Movement Northeast or 55 degrees at 22 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
Tropical Storm Rachel is currently about 520 miles south-southwest of
San Diego, moving northeast towards Northern Baja at about 22 mph.
Rachel is expected to make landfall somewhere just south of the
US/Mexico Border Saturday evening. Tropical storm level impacts will
likely affect San Diego County. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for
all of San Diego County. The main concerns with Tropical Storm Rachel
are coastal flooding, wind, and periods of heavy rain which could lead
to localized flooding and flash flooding. The majority of impacts from
the tropical storm are expected late tonight through early Sunday
afternoon.
South swell from Tropical Storm Rachel will arrive on Sunday. The
combination of south and northwest swells, increased onshore winds,
and high tides over 7 feet will maintain a threat of coastal flooding
and beach erosion along area beaches. Surf on Sunday is currently
expected to peak at 6 to 9 feet, decreasing to 3 to 6 feet for Monday
and Tuesday. Confidence in impactful coastal flooding is high, with
significant coastal flooding and beach erosion likely.
Widespread rain is expected on Sunday from Tropical Storm Rachel.
There is expected to be a gradient in rainfall amounts with the higher
amounts on the southeastern side of the storm. Confidence is high that
the heaviest rain will occur over San Diego County mountains and
deserts. Peak rainfall rates of 0.50 to 0.60 inches are possible for
the coast and valleys, 0.50 to 0.70 inches per hour possible for the
deserts, and 0.70 to 1 inch per hour for the mountains. Current
forecast has rainfall totals of 0.50 to 1.25 inches for the coast,
valleys, and deserts and 1 to 2.5 inches for the mountains. Areas of
flash and urban flooding are probable, especially where the maximum
rainfall rates occur. The San Diego River at Fashion Valley is
currently forecast to peak at 7.4 feet (just below monitor stage)
Sunday afternoon. Those with interests near the San Diego River should
continue to monitor the forecast.
Increased winds are expected with the onset and passage of Tropical
Storm Rachel. Sustained winds of 39+ mph are expected on the southeast
side of the storm. Based on the current track, more southern and
eastern parts of San Diego County are most likely to see winds of this
magnitude. Regardless, strong sustained winds and wind gusts can be
expected on Sunday. Winds will likely be enhanced by local terrain
with gusts 40 to 55 mph on the desert slopes of the mountains and into
the deserts. Local gusts up to 60 mph possible on mountain ridges and
in passes and canyons. Winds are expected to remain elevated in
Rachel's wake with continued strong gusts on the desert mountain
slopes into the deserts through Monday morning.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* COASTAL HAZARDS:
High tides over 7 ft, combined with high surf and gusty onshore winds
will increase the threat for coastal flooding across area beaches.
Additionally surf of 6 to 9 ft will create dangerous swimming
conditions. Significant coastal flooding and beach erosion is likely.
* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across San Diego County. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood
control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across San Diego County.
* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted, especially in coastal and valley locations that
don't typically experience strong winds. Some fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
Elsewhere across EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA, little to no impact
is anticipated.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.
If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean, in a low-lying or poor drainage area, in a valley, or
near a river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground.
Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with orders that
are issued. Do not needlessly jeopardize your life or the lives of
others.
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org
NEXT UPDATE
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The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in San Diego CA around 2 PM PDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.