Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
158 AXPZ20 KNHC 100859 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Simon is centered near 17.2N 104.6W at 10/0900 UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 100W and 110W. The hurricane is expected to continue to rapidly strengthen over the next day or so, with a peak intensity of 135 kt forecast. The current NHC track forecast has the hurricane moving inland over the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco. However, it is possible that the cyclone could remain just offshore as it moves generally northward. Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit through Sunday. This rainfall will produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 24.2N 121.4W at 10/0900 UTC, moving northeast at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 17 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm NE semicircle. Rachel is expected to approach and move ashore along the coast of northern Baja California or extreme Southern California at tropical storm strength tonight. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, tonight and Sunday. Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban flooding. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 13N93W, then resumes near 14N126W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 97W and 114W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 17.2N 104.6W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Simon will move to 17.8N 104.7W this afternoon, 18.8N 104.9W Sun morning, inland to 20.0N 105.1W Sun afternoon, inland to 21.7N 105.3W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 23.1N 105.6W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 24.2N 121.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northeast at 19 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Rachel will move to 26.6N 119.0W this afternoon, 31.0N 116.6W Sun morning, inland to 36.0N 114.1W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Expected increasing winds and building seas over the northern Gulf of California tonight into Sun as Rachel approaches Baja California Norte. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N of 02N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 02N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, moderate to fresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 18N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, as Rachel moves over the southwest United States, a cold front is forecast to extend across the northern forecast waters on Sun. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in long period northerly swell, will follow the front forecast to reach from the northern Gulf of california to near 20N140W on Mon while dissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days.