Tropical Cyclone Discussion
847 WTPZ43 KNHC 100853 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Rachel's convective organization has changed little over the past several hours, with the deepest convection remaining confined to the northern and northeastern portions of the circulation due to increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. A 0505 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass revealed peak winds of around 46 kt and an expanding wind field, which helped refine the initial wind radii. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt. The initial motion is northeastward, or 050/19 kt. A turn toward the north-northeast, accompanied by additional acceleration to around 25 kt, is expected during the next 24 h as Rachel interacts with a deepening mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States. This motion should bring Rachel ashore just south of the U.S./Mexico border tonight, followed by a rapid north-northeastward motion into the southwestern United States. Track guidance has shifted slightly to the right compared to 24 hours ago, but has changed little since the previous cycle. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous prediction and lies close to the HCCA and GDMI aids. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 h as Rachel accelerates northeastward and interacts with the deepening upper-level trough. The NHC intensity forecast shows Rachel strengthening to 55 kt before moving inland tonight. Rachel's wind field has also begun to expand, and additional expansion is possible as the cyclone accelerates northeastward and interacts with the upper-level trough. This could result in tropical-storm-force winds extending farther from the center as Rachel begins to lose its tropical characteristics. Rachel is expected to weaken rapidly after landfall as it encounters the mountainous terrain of northern Baja California and the southwestern United States. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical by 36 h and dissipate by 48 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous prediction and lies near the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach and move ashore along the coast of northern Baja California or extreme Southern California at tropical storm strength tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of northern Baja California, Mexico, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California, and portions of northwestern Mexico where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. 2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, tonight and Sunday. 3. Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban flooding. 4. Waves generated by Rachel, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California. Major coastal flooding has already been occurring in some areas, with observed water levels running as much as 1.5 feet above predictions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves associated with Rachel coincide with high tides and already elevated water levels. Hazardous coastal conditions are expected to continue into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 24.2N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 26.6N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 31.0N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 36.0N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED