Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
428 WTPZ35 KNHC 100836 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Simon Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202026 300 AM CST Sat Oct 10 2026 ...SIMON STILL QUICKLY INTENSIFYING... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 104.6W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Watch from Punta Mita to El Roblito, including Las Islas Maria to a Hurricane Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita * Punta Mita to El Roblito * Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 104.6 West. Simon is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with is forecast through the weekend. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to be near or just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico later today or early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Simon is forecast to approach the of west-central Mexico as a major hurricane this evening or early Sunday. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane at 1700 UTC today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area Saturday evening or Sunday, with tropical storm conditions expected as soon as Saturday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area beginning Sunday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible as soon as Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning tonight or early Saturday. RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit through Sunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely along the immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.