Tropical Cyclone Discussion
556 WTPZ43 KNHC 100250 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Rachel has begun accelerating toward the northeast this evening. After a day or two of relatively unimpressive convection, shower and thunderstorm activity has increased near and east of the center, with cold cloud top temperatures below -65 C. However, dry mid-level air and moderate southwesterly wind shear continue to inhibit the development of organized deep convection around the center. Recent objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 33-42 kt. The intensity is maintained at 40 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving northeastward, or 50/08 kt. Rachel is positioned to the southeast of a strengthening closed mid-level low moving southeastward off the coast of California. A rapid acceleration toward the northeast then north-northeast is expected over the next 24-36 h as the low rounds the base of the trough. This motion should bring Rachel inland over northern Baja California late Saturday or early Sunday. Interaction with the low will subject Rachel to considerable wind shear, likely causing the low- and mid-level centers to decouple. The low-level center is likely to disintegrate as it encounters the Peninsular Ranges of northern Baja, while the mid-level center continues northeastward into the southwestern U.S. Track guidance remains similar to the previous cycle, with the hurricane regional models, the GFS, and the ECMWF on the left side of the envelope, and the GDMI and HCCA on the right. However, the spread is beginning to narrow, with guidance increasingly converging on landfall location in northern Baja. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance. A modest increase in intensity is expected over the next 24 h as Rachel interacts with the closed low, which will likely provide favorable upper-level dynamics and an increase in mid-level moisture. In addition, anomalously warm waters prevail offshore of Baja California. Rachel is forecast to strengthen into a strong tropical storm up through landfall, despite a significant increase in wind shear. After landfall, Rachel is expected to weaken rapidly as it moves inland and encounters the mountainous terrain, while the mid-level low continues into the southwestern U.S. Strong, gusty downslope winds may develop in the lee of the mountain ranges and extend into the deserts. However, Rachel is forecast to lose its tropical characteristics shortly after landfall. The latest NHC forecast intensity is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of the northern Baja California Peninsula and extreme Southern California at tropical storm strength Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of northern Baja California, Mexico where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible in extreme Southern California, eastern Baja California and portions of northwest Mexico where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. Damaging wind gusts associated with Rachel and its remnants are expected to spread over portions of northwestern Mexico and interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, Saturday night and Sunday. 3. Rachel and its moisture will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban flooding. 4. Swells partly generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal flooding, through early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 23.8N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 25.3N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 28.9N 118.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 33.9N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED