Tropical Cyclone Discussion
496 WTNT44 KNHC 100246 TCDAT4 Hurricane Isaias Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 Isaias made landfall as a 90-kt hurricane at 0130 UTC near Destin, Florida. Since that time, the radar structure of the storm has continued to degrade as strong vertical wind shear disrupts the circulation. However, Eglin AFB (KEVX) radar data and surface observations indicate damaging, gusty winds are persisting in the residual northern eyewall and in a band wrapping around the western side of the circulation. Now that the system is farther inland and losing organization, the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory. Isaias is rapidly losing tropical characteristics, and it is forecast to become post-tropical within the next 12 h while it continues moving quickly northward through Alabama. Although the sustained surface winds associated with Isaias will quickly weaken now that the storm is inland, damaging wind gusts associated with the system are expected to extend well inland through Saturday, especially in areas of higher terrain. Because of this, the gust factors in the forecast have been slightly increased during the first 24 h. A turn toward the northeast is forecast later this weekend, bringing the center of the system into the Tennessee Valley before it dissipates. Key Messages: 1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to Suwannee, Florida where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Extremely dangerous and damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. Residents in these areas should have a safe room to ride out the storm and prepare for long-duration power outages. 3. Damaging wind gusts are likely over a large portion of the southeastern United States from western and northern Georgia and the southern Appalachians, westward over much of central and northern Alabama, southern middle Tennessee, and Mississippi, especially in areas of higher terrain. Residents should secure loose outdoor items, avoid driving high-profile vehicles, prepare for power outages, and be aware of the potential for falling trees. 4. Isaias will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast and much of the Southeast through the weekend. Considerable flash and urban flooding, along with significant river flooding, will be possible. Landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians. 5. The tornado potential will continue through tonight. The greatest risk will be east of the center, particularly across the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia. This risk will continue spreading north-northeast across parts of the Southeast on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 30.8N 86.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 32.7N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 11/0000Z 34.7N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 11/1200Z 36.9N 84.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 12/0000Z 39.0N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED