Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
490 WTNT34 KNHC 100245 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026 ...ISAIAS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SPREADS INLAND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.8N 86.5W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning west of the Mississippi/Alabama border has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning west of Ocean Springs, MS, has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning west of Dauphin Island, AL, has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch east of Suwannee River, FL has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Dauphin Island, AL to the Suwannee River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bay/Gulf County Line to Aucilla River, FL A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 86.5 West. Isaias is moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A motion toward the north-northeast or northeast is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to move across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, but Isaias is expected to continue producing gusty winds well inland through Saturday even after it becomes post-tropical. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dauphin Island, AL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 ft Aucilla River, FL to Suwannee River, FL...2-4 ft Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...1-3 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to Dauphin Island, AL...1-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. WIND: Hurricane conditions, particularly in gusts, are expected through early Saturday within the Hurricane Warning area. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread inland as far as 100 miles from the coast into southern Alabama. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the tropical storm warning area. RAINFALL: From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Across much of the remainder of the Southeast, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches are expected. Localized higher amounts up to 10 inches are possible, especially across the Southern Appalachians and coastal Carolinas. Flash, urban, and river flooding is possible across the region, with considerable impacts likely across much of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. Considerable flash flooding and landslides are also possible across the Southern Appalachians. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Isaias, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. TORNADOES: A risk for tornadoes will persist tonight across the Florida Panhandle and north Florida into southern Georgia. The tornado threat will continue Saturday across parts of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, and the Carolinas. SURF: Swells from Isaias are affecting much of the Gulf coasts of the United States, Mexico, and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.